Tasmania's population growth has slowed significantly, with the state experiencing a population slump since 2021. This trend has implications for the economy, particularly in terms of skill shortages and the aging population. The state's population growth rate is the lowest it's been this century, and it's predicted that by 2028-29, Tasmania will be the first state in Australia to enter natural decline, where deaths outnumber births. This is a concerning development, as it suggests that Tasmania may struggle to maintain its current population levels and could face economic challenges as a result.
One factor contributing to the population slump is the outflow of young adults, who are leaving Tasmania for better job opportunities and lifestyles. This is particularly evident in the case of Ellie Warmbrunn, a 22-year-old who has moved to Queensland's Gold Coast to pursue her career in journalism and creative writing. While she misses her family in Tasmania, she sees the move as an opportunity to develop her career and enjoy the Queensland lifestyle.
However, the population slump is not just a result of young adults leaving the state. It's also driven by interstate and overseas migration, which has increased demand for housing and contributed to the state's housing shortage. This is a complex issue, as it's not just a matter of people moving to Tasmania, but also the reasons why they leave.
One couple, Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner, moved to Tasmania in 2018 with the goal of "buckling down" and getting into the housing market. They arrived from Moreton Island in Queensland with only $500, a car, and no qualifications. Despite facing challenges in accessing childcare, they've been able to make a success of their move, with Mr. Wagner taking on an adult apprenticeship in welding and flipping mountain bikes on the side.
The small city of Burnie, where they live, has a certain charm that reminds them of growing up in Melbourne in the 90s. However, the state's population slump is not just a result of people leaving, but also the challenges faced by those who stay. The state's aging population is a significant concern, with the median age predicted to reach around 48 years by 2050, and 28% of the population over 65.
This aging population is already impacting the state's economy, with skill shortages and increased healthcare spending. The state is also facing challenges in attracting more people, as it competes with other major construction projects, such as the Brisbane Olympic Games infrastructure projects. To address these challenges, the state needs to improve its basic government services, particularly in the areas of education and health.
In conclusion, Tasmania's population slump has significant implications for the state's economy and future development. The state needs to address the challenges faced by its aging population and improve its basic government services to attract more people and maintain its current population levels. While the state has made some progress in attracting young workers, more needs to be done to ensure its long-term economic viability.
